An incredible day in the Spring Carnival, Derby Day is like no other. The start of the Melbourne Cup Carnival highlighted by 4 Group One’s.
The program is filled with class runners, from all over the country. It’s a tough day for betting so hopefully we can help you out!
RACE 1- 1600M- GROUP 3 Network 10 Carbine Club Stakes
4 – EMBOLISM – Won very well last time out, looks a promising runner. Run before that he finished off well behind Grandslam when the tempo was against. That looks a great run considering the progression of Grandslam.
2 – ENDANGER – Didn’t enjoy the Valley two starts back but ran home well once settled, race-fastest 200m that night. Franked that finish with a good one last time out and looks like the mile will suit.
3 – AYSAR – Gets a good draw here which is nice, was terrific in the Guineas when running second there. Looks to map into the race with a nice trail and beat home Crosshaven then. Meets him better at the weights here too. Value is a query if playing here.
1 – CROSSHAVEN – Two wins leading into the Caulfield Guineas were great, dictated both races and ran some great times in them. Was wide in the Guineas but battled on well, if he gets an easier run in transit he may be a better chance.
Suggested bet: Embolism – win/ Endanger – save
RACE 2 – 2000M – GROUP 2 G.H.Mumm Wakeful Stakes
1 – PERSONAL – Very tough run in the Guineas last start, had to make the move early and battled all the way to the finish. Looks much better suited to the 2000m here, will be the one to beat.
4 – AGREEABLE – Ran the race-fastest 200m in Thousand Guineas, another one that will enjoy the rise trip, took time building speed there so this trip should suit. Will need to turn the tables on the top pick here.
2 – STARELLE – Ran well behind Thermosphere here two starts back, had blinkers on there and looked good. Disappointing next start but that was a forgive run, pulled up lame after that.
7 – PENSATO – Controlled the race two start back here and scored well, wasn’t able to do the same at Caulfield the next time but had its chance. Maybe should have done better there but can figure here again.
Suggested Bet: No bet
RACE 3 – 1200M GROUP 2 TAB Stakes
6 – BANQUO – Second-up run here was great, ran behind Zoutori who is flying and won 2 down the straight this campaign. Went up to Group 1 level last start and was honest there. Comes back to 1200m here which is a plus.
9 – OCTANE – Was flying pre last two runs, had won three on the bounce! Was every chance to make that 4 but ran into no luck that time and couldn’t get the run. Ran at WFA after that and didn’t seem to enjoy that. Will prefer this. Lots of speed here may help.
8 – BOLD STAR – Had the worst run in the Moir when forced to go back and wide, seemed like forever before he saw daylight. Flew home with race-fastest 200m once he did, then was a little plain after that. Best is good enough.
1 – CORUSCATE – Has returned in excellent order, unbeaten in two runs back. Will look to lead and get control of the race but will have to battle against a few for that spot. If the lead is found uncontested he becomes very hard to beat. Pattern?
Suggested Bet: Banquo – win/ Coruscate – save
RACE 4- 2500M- GROUP 3 Lexus Hotham Stakes
1 – ASHRUN – Didn’t finish off to quick at Geelong in Oz debut but he will be better for that run, considering two runs before that were over 3000m he may have found the 2400m a tad sharp? Will enjoy the extra trip here and is a lock to stay the trip.
7 – FUTURE SCORE – Was a very good winner in the Cranbourne Cup, tempo was perfect for him but still impressive especially second-up. Will be peaking here so expect to see an improvement. Will need it to figure here.
10 – SCHABAU – Has been super competitive since returning this campaign, has run behind some very good ones in all three runs and may find this a touch easier. Does enjoy it here!
11 – ADMIRE ROBSON – Comes here ready to peak, has been steady since returning and had no luck last time so we can forget that run. Will need sharp improvement here but is very capable.
Suggested Bet: Ashrun- win
RACE 5 – 1600M- GROUP 1 TAB Empire Rose Stakes
1 – MYSTIC JOURNEY – Found her best last start at MV, loomed as d-day and she stood up terrifically well. Loves it at the mile and stands above as the class horse in the race. Can pull out the odd plain run every now and then.
12 – ODEUM – Excellent Guineas win last time out, franked win in the Prelude and is starting to build a very good record. Not sure the class is there to warrant the price but she is good enough to win.
3 – MADAM ROUGE – Was brilliant when swooping off a hot speed last time out, has shown signs of her best this campaign. If she brings that here she is right in this, query is over the distance though. Betting key here.
9 – FELICIA – Super tough and honest, had queries over ability over 1400m last start but put those to bed with strong run. Those queries now move on to the mile, her chances revolve around her ability to control the pace from the front.
Suggested Bet: Mystic Journey – win
RACE 6 – 1200M – GROUP 1 Coolmore Stud Stakes
14 – SEPTEMBER RUN – Looks a proper runner, has enjoyed the straight last two times out and that’s always a plus. Has run some serious times in those wins although the last one was wind assisted. Weight is a huge plus too.
12 – SWAT’S THAT – Ran a flashing last 200m when fresh, backed that up with two solid wins. Went wide second-up and got them then had the gun run next time. Better opposition here but again weights are a plus and has speed.
2 – WILD RULER – Has been terrific in Sydney, unbeaten this campaign and is peaking now. Beat Doubtland convincingly but now finds this a tad deeper, has the class to win here.
4 – GLENFIDDICH – Looked a genuine Guineas chance after a terrific win at MV, was then scratched from the Guineas. Comes here essentially fresh so the 1200m will be no issue, might be over?
Suggested Bet: September Run – win/ Swat’s That – save
RACE 7- 2500M- GROUP 1 AAMI Victoria Derby
5 – YOUNG WERTHER – Has looked a class runner in his two runs so far, won very convincingly first-up and then ran into some trouble nest time. Maybe a bit of inexperience cost him there but he still flew home for second. Distance looks no issue.
1 – CHERRY TORTONI – Let’s just pretend his trip to Sydney didn’t happen? His Melbourne form has been brilliant. Was powerful in victory at MV last start when coming from last to lead at the turn which was crucial due to pattern. Distance a query but he’s not alone in that box.
3 – JOHNNY GET ANGRY – Looks well overs here, trained by former AFL coach Dennis Pagan this boy looks a real stayer. Took his time to get into his groove last start but looked good once he did. Is a lock to stay the trip while some others here aren’t.
2 – ALBARADO – A very good win last start over the 2000m, looks like the trip will be no issue. The wide-run there was exactly what was needed if you were worried about his engine.
Suggested Bet: Young Werther – win
RACE 8 – 1600M- GROUP 1 Kennedy Cantala
1 – FIFTY STARS – Looks well overs here, has been superb since returning and is ready to reach peak form. Last start was superb with 60kg on the back and looked desperate for more. Will eat the 1600m. Loves it here and has only missed the quinella once at the track and trip.
2 – MR QUICKIE – Terrific win last start, Jamie Kah gave him a peach ride and she is riding even better now then she was that day! Has been superb this campaign and enjoys the mile, will still be up here and can run a race.
18 – JUNIPAL – Had returned in excellent order in first two runs back, was very plain last start. Wins before that were very convincing and showed plenty of class, will need an improvement from last start but looks overs.
7 – CASCADIAN – Has been good this prep but has found zero luck, not sure the tight Caulfield track suits him. Will find it more spacious here at HQ and that suits. Looks ready to blast a few away if given the right run.
Suggested Bet: Fifty Stars – e/w
RACE 9 – 1100M – GROUP 3 Furphy Sprint
3- DIAMOND EFFORT- Had no luck in Moir when trying to run with Trekking, that form has been franked by Trekking since. Was good start after but pipped by Dirty Work, back to her own sex here and she has won up the straight.
8- FITEUSE – Was good behind California Zimbol last start, looked set to swoop past but just couldn’t get the nose in front. Has the ability to flip the the script here up the straight.
4 – CALIFORNIA ZIMBOL – Brilliant win last start, gets a nice drop in weight here as well. Didn’t handle the straight last time here and was handily beaten by Sisstar.
6 – SISSTAR – Looks well overs here, likes it here and was solid in return at MV. Will need a sharp improvement here but has the class, can’t ignore a win up the Flemington straight.
Suggested Bet: Diamond Effort – win